The chart at right represents the worst case scenario for Apple’s share of the global SmartPhone market.
Using Apple’s own numbers for fiscal Q2, we calculate that iPhone sales grew 7% year over year in a sell-in basis while the overall smartphone market grew by about 36%. The net result is that Apple’s share of the global smartphone market fell from 23% last year to 17% share this year — the largest year-over-year decline in the iPhone’s history.
The situation won’t get any better by June. Based on Apple’s fiscal Q3 revenue guidance, we estimate Apple will sell about 25 million iPhones in the current quarter. If the overall market grows 30%, Apple’s share will fall to 12.3%. If it grows 36%, Apple’s share falls to 11.7%.
Given this, how can be maintained a $600 price target for Apple and an Outperform rating?
- Apple’s market share typically troughs before new offerings… Apple’s share could increase dramatically with the introduction of a lower priced device, and meaningfully with the addition of new carriers. We estimate that adding China Mobile would boost Apple’s global smartphone market share by over 100 bps in the first year, and that a successful low end iPhone could boost share by 500 bps or more.
- iPhone is still growing healthily. As gloomy as these market share forecasts appear, we model iPhone unit sales growing 15% in FY 2013, and 10% in FY14, and our model does not include the introduction of a lower-priced device. Yes, Apple is growing at a fraction of the market – because it is not participating in the fastest growing, low end segment – but we still expect it to grow.
- The size of the total iOS ecosystem remains staggering on both an absolute and relative basis – and Apple’s customer base remains intensely loyal. In short, iOS is in no risk of going away… Moreover, our consumer surveys point to iPhone repurchase intentions of over 90%, notably ahead of competing ecosystems, including Android.
- Market share does not necessarily correlate with profitability. Currently, Apple’s iPhone positioning is increasingly mirroring the Mac, which commands just 5% PC market share, but is highly profitable, accounting for an estimated 40% of total PC industry profits.
- Philip Elmer-DeWitt: Analyst: Apple’s smartphone share in single digits by Sept. (tech.fortune.cnn.com)
- CHART OF THE DAY: The iPhone’s Market Share Is Dead In The Water (AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, GOOG) (businessinsider.com)
- Analyst: Apple’s smartphone share in single digits by Sept. (forums.pinstack.com)
- Analyst: Apple’s Smartphone Share Could Drop to 9% by Q3 2013 [Chart] (iClarified.com)
- IDC on Smartphones in Q1: Android Dominant , WP up , iOS down (techysants.wordpress.com)
- Verizon iPhone First Take (reviews.cnet.com)
- What does the iPhone 5 mean to Android? Not a lot (reviews.cnet.com)
Since 2012, no major innovation comes from Apple. The company collapses on Wall Street since September 2012, and the Dow Jones with, in April 2013.
Greater the success, greater will be the fall?
While Apple’s stock had exceeded U.S. $ 700 in September 2012, she fell yesterday to U.S. $ 380 in the stock market on Wall Street, nearly half! As a result, the New York Stock Exchange finished well in the red and the Dow Jones dropped 0.94%. Worse, Apple action now displays a price / earnings ratio of nine times, it is ie very low, worthy companies deemed (“Permanently screwed”) by the markets. group at Apple, must publish the results of its first quarter results on Tuesday, April 23 through a difficult period, punctuated by disappointments. Admittedly, expectations are so strong!
What ignited the powder?
Cirrus American company said this week that its unsold inventory “of a product from a customer” were greater than expected in the first quarter 2013. Yet the company is a leading provider of audio components for Apple on the supposed flagship models such as the iPhone and iPad and it generates 90% of its sales through Apple!
This concern on sales adds to doubts about the future of the company: the management team have a vision for the company? Did Apple really revolutionary new products in the hood? How to improve its margins in decline since its flagship products become commonplace?
On mobile phones, the lead taken by Samsung
In terms of mobile phones, Samsung, selling 25 million smartphones per month, continues to steal market share at the California firm. According to forecasts from research firm Strategy Analytics, the South Korean should hold 38% market share in 2013, while Apple on the other hand do have more than 19%. In 2012, the gap was much thinner since Samsung had 32% and Apple 21% market share.
2013 financial perspectives
If in 2012, the company has still reached $ 43 billion, up 10%, some analysts predict that Apple’s net income could decline by 18% in the first quarter compared to the same period of the last year it would be an absolute first: the benefits have not declined over the past decade!
Some data still green
Apple has $ 150 billion in cash reserves, and has no debts. It helps to relative the health of the company. Who can say the same?
- Action Apple baisse chute ventes (economiematin.fr)
- Biz Break: Has Apple reached rock bottom, or can it slide more? (mercurynews.com)
- What to Expect of Apple Inc. (AAPL)? (insidermonkey.com)
- Apple Shares Falls Below $400 Amid Slow Sales (gadget.com)
- Apple Inc. (AAPL) Will Regain Glory (insidermonkey.com)
- Crunch time: investors punish Apple (smh.com.au)
Using the data from December & January, we get the following market share split by platform.
This projection is likely to be somewhat conservative for Android tablets. Display shipments in February are likely to be closer to January’s figures, as compared to December, which puts the iPad’s market share under even more pressure.
In addition to this, rising demand from emerging markets is likely to continue to boost Android tablet shipments. Meanwhile, Windows 8/RT tablets seem to be following in Windows Phone’s footsteps.
See more details
- Android tablets projected to outsell iPad for first time in 2013 (bgr.com)
- 7-inch Android tablets to overtake iPad in Q1 2013, analyst says (androidauthority.com)
- Sales of Apple iPads to be overtaken by Android tablets (telegraph.co.uk)
- Android tablet sales to overtake Apple iPad for first time in 2013: Report (news.in.msn.com)
- Apple’s iPads to fall behind Android tablets this year: IDC (news.yahoo.com)
- BlackBerry has big plans for 2013; Includes tablet and phablet device (mobigyaan.com)