The PC market has been on the decline for the past year, but there are new hints that the situation is improving — if only slightly. Both Gartner (shown here) and IDC estimate that worldwide computer shipments dropped roughly eight percent year-over-year in the third quarter. While that’s not exactly comforting to vendors, it’s better than the double-digit losses of the past several months; the analyst groups even saw flat or positive growth in countries like Japan and the US. Any further declines in some regions may be relatively gentle, Gartner says.
As for who’s out in front?
Heavyweights like Lenovo, HP and Dell grew thanks to improving business sales and some advance shipments of Windows 8.1 PCs. Acer and ASUS, meanwhile, were dealt the worst blow as their netbook sales continued to suffer from the rise of mobile OS tablets. Neither Gartner nor IDC is predicting a turnaround for the industry, but they suggest that PC builders are finally figuring out their places in a world where mobile devices rule.
Not only PC, but MAC also
Another interesting piece of data we glean in the report is that Apple (AAPL) experienced a PC shipment decline of 11.2% in the third quarter. Perhaps, iPhone and iPad are cannibalizing MAC sales. It’s something to watch in the upcoming quarterly results. Smartphones and tablets have compressed the tech giant’s margins, falling Mac sales might further the problem; although management recent said margins will be higher thanks to iPhone 5S sales. Nobody actually wants the 5C as its price has been cut by many vendors already.
The way of the VHS
The PC is going the way of the VHS. Investors would be better served focusing on tablet leaders and suppliers. Even smartphone sales are beginning to moderate.
- PC shipments fall for sixth straight quarter (nbcnews.com)
- The PC Industry Shrank Another 9%, Gartner Says (AAPL, HPQ) (businessinsider.com)
- The PC Industry Shrank Another 9%, Gartner Says (AAPL, HPQ) (embargozone.com)
- IDC and Gartner: Q3 2013 PC shipments not as bad as predicted, but still bad (neowin.net)
- PC sales continue to fall as smartphones, tablets cut demand (ctvnews.ca)
Despite beating Wall Street expectations in terms of shipment volumes, Apple’s share in the worldwide smartphone operating system market posted a year-over-year decline during the second quarter of 2013 (2Q13). Meanwhile, Android and Windows Phone both managed slight increases during the same period. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, vendors shipped a total of 236.4 million smartphones in 2Q13, up 51.3% from the 156.2 million units shipped in 2Q12. Second quarter shipments grew 9.3% when compared to the 216.3 million units shipped in 1Q13.
Smartphone OS Highlights
Android maintained its leadership position, with strong contributions from Samsung and its Galaxy S4. Not to be overlooked were LG and Chinese vendors Huawei, Lenovo, and ZTE, which each recorded double-digit shipment volumes in the millions. Combined, these vendors accounted for 62.5% of all Android-powered smartphone shipments during the quarter. Still, the remaining vendors within the Android ecosystem should not be overlooked, as many have developed a strong local presence within key developing markets.
iOS finished the quarter as the clear number 2 operating system, showing that, even without new product launches, demand remains strong. Moreover, Apple added new mobile operators to its camp, boosting short-term volumes and cementing long-term end-user relationships. What remains to be seen is how the new iOS 7 will be received once it reaches the market later this year, as much of the look and feel of the user interface has been revamped.
Windows Phone posted the largest year-over-year increase among the top five smartphone platforms, and in the process reinforced its position as the number 3 smartphone operating system. Driving this result was Nokia, which released two new smartphones and grew its presence at multiple mobile operators. But beyond Nokia, Windows Phone remained a secondary option for other vendors, many of which have concentrated on Android. By comparison, Nokia accounted for 81.6% of all Windows Phone smartphone shipments during 2Q13.
- Wndows Phone shows signs of life while BlackBerry keeps crumbling (news.yahoo.com)
- IDC’s 2Q13 Smartphone Share Report: It’s iOS vs. Android, and Windows Phone vs. Everyone Else (globalnerdy.com)
- The Android Stat That Shocked the Smartphone World (mobilemarketingwatch.com)
- Apple loses ground to Android and Microsoft in smartphone operating systems (telegraph.co.uk)
The chart at right represents the worst case scenario for Apple’s share of the global SmartPhone market.
Using Apple’s own numbers for fiscal Q2, we calculate that iPhone sales grew 7% year over year in a sell-in basis while the overall smartphone market grew by about 36%. The net result is that Apple’s share of the global smartphone market fell from 23% last year to 17% share this year — the largest year-over-year decline in the iPhone’s history.
The situation won’t get any better by June. Based on Apple’s fiscal Q3 revenue guidance, we estimate Apple will sell about 25 million iPhones in the current quarter. If the overall market grows 30%, Apple’s share will fall to 12.3%. If it grows 36%, Apple’s share falls to 11.7%.
Given this, how can be maintained a $600 price target for Apple and an Outperform rating?
- Apple’s market share typically troughs before new offerings… Apple’s share could increase dramatically with the introduction of a lower priced device, and meaningfully with the addition of new carriers. We estimate that adding China Mobile would boost Apple’s global smartphone market share by over 100 bps in the first year, and that a successful low end iPhone could boost share by 500 bps or more.
- iPhone is still growing healthily. As gloomy as these market share forecasts appear, we model iPhone unit sales growing 15% in FY 2013, and 10% in FY14, and our model does not include the introduction of a lower-priced device. Yes, Apple is growing at a fraction of the market – because it is not participating in the fastest growing, low end segment – but we still expect it to grow.
- The size of the total iOS ecosystem remains staggering on both an absolute and relative basis – and Apple’s customer base remains intensely loyal. In short, iOS is in no risk of going away… Moreover, our consumer surveys point to iPhone repurchase intentions of over 90%, notably ahead of competing ecosystems, including Android.
- Market share does not necessarily correlate with profitability. Currently, Apple’s iPhone positioning is increasingly mirroring the Mac, which commands just 5% PC market share, but is highly profitable, accounting for an estimated 40% of total PC industry profits.
- Philip Elmer-DeWitt: Analyst: Apple’s smartphone share in single digits by Sept. (tech.fortune.cnn.com)
- CHART OF THE DAY: The iPhone’s Market Share Is Dead In The Water (AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, GOOG) (businessinsider.com)
- Analyst: Apple’s smartphone share in single digits by Sept. (forums.pinstack.com)
- Analyst: Apple’s Smartphone Share Could Drop to 9% by Q3 2013 [Chart] (iClarified.com)
- IDC on Smartphones in Q1: Android Dominant , WP up , iOS down (techysants.wordpress.com)
- Verizon iPhone First Take (reviews.cnet.com)
- What does the iPhone 5 mean to Android? Not a lot (reviews.cnet.com)
Worldwide PC shipments totaled 76.3 million units in the first quarter of 2013 (1Q13), down -13.9% compared to the same quarter in 2012 and worse than the forecast decline of -7.7%, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. The extent of the year-on-year contraction marked the worst quarter since IDC began tracking the PC market quarterly in 1994. The results also marked the fourth consecutive quarter of year-on-year shipment declines.
Despite some mild improvement in the economic environment and some new PC models offering Windows 8, PC shipments were down significantly across all regions compared to a year ago. Fading Mini Notebook shipments have taken a big chunk out of the low-end market while tablets and smartphones continue to divert consumer spending. PC industry efforts to offer touch capabilities and ultraslim systems have been hampered by traditional barriers of price and component supply, as well as a weak reception for Windows 8.
“Although the reduction in shipments was not a surprise, the magnitude of the contraction is both surprising and worrisome,” said David Daoud, IDC Research Director, Personal Computing.
United States – The U.S. market had another dismal quarter in 1Q13, contracting -12.7% year on year, with a drop of -18.3% compared to the fourth quarter of 2012.
EMEA – As expected, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) remained constrained, posting a stronger double-digit decline than anticipated in the first quarter of 2013. The market response to Windows 8 and touch-enabled devices remained slow.
Japan – PC shipments were in line with expectations in the first quarter. Some economic improvement is helping to support commercial replacement demand ahead of the scheduled end of support for Windows XP next year. However, consumer shipments remained very weak.
Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) (APeJ) – PC shipments in APeJ declined sharply, dropping a record -12.7% year on year, the first time the region has experienced a double-digit decline. Although much of the earlier Windows 7 stock had cleared, a lukewarm reception toward Windows 8 hampered new shipments.
HP remained the top vendor, but posted a substantial double-digit decline in shipments after an aggressive fourth quarter kept growth flat during the holidays. HP’s worldwide shipments fell more than -23% year on year in 1Q13.
Lenovo remained second in global shipments and nearly closed the gap with HP. Lenovo continued to outpace the market, notably expanding shipments with its attack strategy.
Dell saw shipments decline by more than -10% globally and -14% in the United States. The vendor continued to face tough competition and struggled with customer uncertainty about the direction of its restructuring.
Acer Group continued to see substantial declines in shipments across regions. As the leader in Mini Notebook shipments, the vendor has been particularly exposed to the decline in these systems. Slow consumer and SMB growth has also taken a toll.
ASUS managed some growth in the United States, but saw a substantial decline in EMEA and Asia/Pacific. The company’s substantial surge in Americas shipments in the second half of 2012 gave way to limited growth as demand weakened.
Apple fared better than the overall U.S. market, but still saw shipments decline as its own PCs also face competition from iPads.
Toshiba also saw shipments decline in the United States, but fared better than the overall market, benefitting somewhat from the restructuring of market leaders HP and Dell.
Perspective and Predictions
The main question is: why are we in such situation? Since beginning of 2012, we are now in a transition. People wants mobility. They buy tablets in order to have this usage. Until now, PC even laptops are too big, not adapted to mobility, not sufficiently autonomous and with a Windows in transition. These Laptops PC couldn’t be transformed in tablets, or with difficulties. Technologies were not there.
But in parallel, customers that bought tablets are viewing their current limits: easy to consume data and Apps, difficult to create documents or programs; in any case, less performing than PC.
In 2Q13, new tablets PC will be launched by several constructors. Very similar to tablets, and very similar to PC. But these Tablets PC will have too main difficulties: first is the price around 1500 euros for good touch tablet and for good PC with hard disk and minimum of 8 hours of usage and second is Windows 8, which remains in transition.
Then, the market will continue to decrease in 3Q13 and 4Q13. In 1Q14 or 2Q14 should be launched Windows 9 by Microsoft. Same tablets launched on 2Q13 will be sold around 800 – 1000 euros. Starting 2Q14 or 3Q14, PC market will re-increase, pushed in tablets PC.
Prediction is that in 2016, only 10% of PC sold will be Desktop and 90% will be Tablet PC. Starting half of 2014, the market of tablets “alone” (as current iPAD or Galaxy Tab) will decrease.
TOP4 Internet Browsers on Laptops
For last 5 years, main evolutions are Internet Explorer (IE) position divided by 2 from 68% to 32%, Chrome started from nothing to the first position with 38%, low reduction from Firefox from 28% to 24% and low progress for Safari from 4% to 8%.
TOP3 browsers in 1st pos. by country
It is very interesting to see that the first Internet Browser is very different from a country to another. In USA, Canada, Australia, China and all south African countries, IE remains the TOP1 Internet Browser.
Chrome is the first Internet Browser in Central America and South of America, in all European countries expect Germany, Poland and Finland, in Russia and all old Russian satellites, in India, in Pakistan, in Morocco, in Egypt.
And finally, Firefox is in the first position in most of North and central African countries, in Germany, in Poland, in Finland, in Iran, in Indonesia & in Madagascar.
Future tendencies for the next 5 years?
Positions of browsers of mobile devices are probably the most important indicator for the tendency of browsers position for the next 5 years, if we take as valuable hypothesis that the future of computers are mobile devices.
Chrome is also at the first position (Android) with 30%. Opera has reduced from 28% to 15% in 5 years, Safari (iPhone) from 22% to 24% has slowly progressed.
Firefox & IE don’t have any position on mobile devices currently. But it could change in the next 5 years, with high progress of Windows Phone with Nokia, and the launch next summer 2013 of Firefox OS, the mobile OS of Firefox.
We have finally to notice important progress of UC Browser from 0% to 10%, a very fast Browser working with all mobile OS. Is it the future main browser for all mobile devices?
See more statistics
- http://gs.statcounter.com/ (statcounter.com)
- Safari boosts mobile browser market share, retains top spot (itproportal.com)
- Browser Trends April 2013: is Chrome Unstoppable? (sitepoint.com)
- Web browser war: The early 2013 report (zdnet.com)
- Internet Explorer mobile browser: Sleek, but weak? (reviews.cnet.com)
The previous photo shows the TOP5 SmartPhone on Feb 2013: Samsung Galaxy S3, Nokia Lumia, iPhone 5, Google Nexus 4 and Motorola Droid.
1 main winner if we compare Feb 2012 & Feb 2013: Android with Samsung phones over 50% everywhere.
In American countries, the progress of Windows is not significant. Black Berry OS and Symbian are not representing anythink in 2013. In Mexico, the progress of Android in incredible from 25,9 to 55,8 in one year.
In Europe, there is 2 main winners. Of course Android with Samsung phones over 70% in Germany! But also Windows with Nokia phones more that 5% everywhere and more than 6,5% in GB and Germany. In Italy Windows is over than 10% with 13,1%. Symbian is nothing in Europe now. RIM is over 5% in GB and Germany.
- Android continues to grow as iOS and BlackBerry shrink (androidcommunity.com)
- Android And Windows Phone Gain, BlackBerry Loses In Smartphone OS Share According To Kantar (techcrunch.com)
- New Quad Core Android Smartphone from China Challenges Leaders Supremacy (prweb.com)
- Windows Phone Increases US Market Share Ahead Of BlackBerry (techweekeurope.co.uk)